I like to think about the future, making bets occasionally about how I think it will play out.


Crypto ubiquitous within 10 years

What's the bet: I bet my crypto skeptic friend Glenn Feidler that within 10 years (May 27, 2032) he'll be using a crypto wallet regularly. If I win, he pays me $1000 in crypto, if he wins I pay the same in fiat.

My rationale: Here are a two features I believe will become ubiquitous over the next few years to ultimately make crypto common (and force Glenn to pay up!)

To the chagrin of crypto natives, custodial wallets will become the norm. That's ok though, because both custodial and non-custodial wallets are supported in the platform and so people will ultimately have choice (even though most won't choose it). This will fix the primary UX and customer service problem.

With that in place, the most obvious use case is in peer to peer payment. Products like Venmo, Paypal, and others will be pressured by apps like Twitter and Facebook to implement a system that allows them to interoperate. Social networks will be the ones applying pressure because it makes sense to provide the utility, and others will be forced to follow. Ultimately crypto provides the peer-to-peer payment backbone.

With respect to gaming, in a world where digital items feel more permanent than physical ones, having a global digital item marketplace is a killer feature. Systems like Immutable's order book will prove that there is in fact value in connecting systems maintained by individual publishers to a global market platform. The value here is currently being obscured up by play-to-earn ponzi schemes and other nonsense. Although a universal marketplace certainly doesn't require crypto, in the 50 years gaming has existed (and the 20 or so since the internet became ubiquitous) competitive forces have never allowed something like this to manifest, though it clearly benefits players. New games will adopt this feature as a competitive advantage, the same way previous games adopted F2P or social platforms, leaving disconnected games playing catch up in order to service their players.